2 publishers · first seen Wed, 28 Oct 2026 02:30 UTC · updated Thu, 29 Oct 2026 12:57 UTC
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and the Financial and Fiscal Commission (FFC) have warned of prolonged economic challenges linked to weak growth and strained public finances. The OBR cut its 2027 UK growth forecast to 1% from 1.6%, citing the US-Iran conflict's impact on energy prices and inflation, which is expected to peak at 3.8% in early 2027 before returning to the 2% target by late 2028. It forecasts real household disposable income per person to fall by 0.6% in 2026-27, with growth averaging 0.6% annually thereafter.
In South Africa, the PBO and FFC highlighted risks to fiscal stability, with real GDP growth projected at 1.2% in 2026, rising to 1.8% by 2029. Debt-service costs absorb 21c of every rand in main budget revenue, and debt redemptions are projected to reach R412.5bn in 2031/32. The FFC noted a R54.1bn revenue increase was outweighed by R59.5bn in higher spending, leaving the main budget deficit at R301.6bn.
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